Clinical and Demographic Predictors of Conversion to Dementia in Mexican Elderly with Mild Cognitive Impairment.

BACKGROUND Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is considered a clinical stage between normal cognitive aging and dementia. The clinical course of MCI is heterogeneous, with a significant number of cases progressing to dementia or reverting back to normal. OBJECTIVE To determine the predictors of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to dementia among Mexican older adults. MATERIALS AND METHODS A sample of 175 persons underwent clinical and neuropsychological evaluation to establish mild cognitive impairment diagnosis. These patients were followed-up for a mean 3.5 years. RESULTS Mean age was 81.7 (± 6.9) years, 57% were women, and mean education level was 9.5 (± 6.1) years. Sixty-one percent of mild cognitive impairment participants progressed to dementia. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that progression to dementia was associated with age (HR: 4.95; 95% CI: 1.96-12.46; p = 0.001), low education level (HR: 5.81; 95% CI: 1.90-7.78; p < 0.002), history of stroke (HR: 3.92; 95% CI: 1.37-11.16; p < 0.012) and cognitive decline (HR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.18-1.45; p = 0.000). CONCLUSIONS Age, poor education, cognitive decline, and a history of stroke were predictors of conversion to dementia. The identification and control of modifiable risk factors could influence conversion to dementia.